Race and the Bradley Effect in the 2008 Election

To assume that race will not play a role in the upcoming election is naive, but it is not likely to be in a 'traditional ' sense. There will be Blacks that will vote for Obama just because he is black, there will be whites who will not vote for Obama just because he is black. Although both reflect racist attitudes, there is a different driver behind each. For the Black racist, the voter is (mis-)guided by a sense of pride. Certainly not the best reason to choose the leader of the free world. For the white racist, especially the white mainline democrat, that votes against their values based on skin color, their racism is based in hate. Racism on both sides-YES, the same or comparable? NO.

The Bradly effect IMO will not occur in this election, for a few reasons. First, there is still some discussion if there even exists a Bradly effect with respect to the California Governor's race. Second, in the information age, more people are making up their minds earlier in the season. Additionally, part of the issue of what determines the Bradley effect is that polls were taken in person. The difference with the presidential election is that it 'should' be easier for individuals who intend to vote for or against either candidate to be more candid with the pollster. The additional advancement of race relations to date are the final piece of this complex puzzle.